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将政府支出引入效用函数,建立动态一般均衡模型,分析当前的居民人均收入、社会保障与就业支出和医疗卫生支出对居民消费的影响。根据中国2007M1—2013M6月度数据,建立时变参数的状态空间模型。发现居民收入对其消费有正向刺激作用,但由于受未来不确定性因素的冲击,该刺激作用并不是非常强烈;社会保障与就业支出和医疗卫生支出的投入规模虽然逐年上升,但其并未对居民消费产生明显的挤入效应。因此,确定合适的社会保障与就业支出和医疗卫生支出的投入规模,完善政策实施方式并加大政策监管力度势在必行。
The government expenditure is introduced into the utility function, and a dynamic general equilibrium model is established to analyze the current resident per capita income, social security and employment expenditure and medical expenditure on resident consumption. According to the monthly data of China 2007M1-2013M6, a state space model of time-varying parameters is established. It is found that residents’ income has a positive stimulative effect on their consumption, but due to the impact of uncertainties in the future, the stimulus is not very strong; although the scale of investment in social security and employment expenditure and medical and health expenditure has increased year by year, No obvious crowding-in effect on residents’ consumption. Therefore, it is imperative to determine the appropriate investment in social security and employment expenditures and medical and health expenditures, improve the ways in which policies are implemented, and increase the supervision of policies.