论文部分内容阅读
目的探索国际航行船舶外来医学媒介生物传入的风险因素。方法采用1∶4频数匹配的分析性流行病学研究方法,在2007年来港国际航行船舶中选择媒介阳性船舶170艘,随机选择对照船舶680艘进行调查,并以非条件logistic回归法分析筛选与媒介检出相关的风险因素。结果校正混杂因素及变量间的干扰后,总吨位的OR值为0.711(95%CI:0.497～1.016)、到达季节的OR值分别为OR春vs.冬=3.413、OR夏vs.冬=3.328、货物种类的OR值为3.541(95%CI:1.495～8.383)、曾检出媒介生物的OR值为31.213(95%CI:8.250～118.093)、船员国籍分布的OR中外籍vs.中籍值为0.402(95%CI:0.173～0.938)、免予除鼠证书签发日期的OR值为1.372(95%CI:1.117～1.684)。结论经多因素量化分析,筛选出与船舶媒介生物携带相关的6项风险因素,且差异均有统计学意义,为国际航行船舶外来媒介生物风险评估及预警系统的建立提供理论基础。
Objective To explore the risk factors of biological introduction of foreign medical vectors in international voyages. Methods A 1: 4 frequency-matched analytical epidemiological method was used to select 170 positive-going ships for international voyages to Hong Kong in 2007 and 680 randomly selected controlled ships for investigation. The results of non-conditional logistic regression analysis and screening The media detected the relevant risk factors. Results After adjusting for confounding and inter-variables interference, the OR of total tonnage was 0.711 (95% CI: 0.497-1.016). The odds ratios were OR spring vs winter = 3.413, OR summer vs. winter = 3.328 OR of 3.541 (95% CI: 1.495 ~ 8.383) for cargo types, OR of vector organism was 31.213 (95% CI: 8.250-118.093), OR of Chinese nationality Was 0.402 (95% CI: 0.173-0.938), OR of 1.372 (95% CI: 1.117-1.684) for the date of exemption of deratization certificate. Conclusion Based on the quantitative analysis of multiple factors, six risk factors related to carriage of vector organisms in ships were screened out. The differences were statistically significant, which provided a theoretical basis for the establishment of bio-risk assessment and early warning system for foreign carriers of international ships.