论文部分内容阅读
回顾我国40年来经济发展的轨迹,从1950年到1988年的38年间,共有8个周期性经济波动,长者7年,短者为2年,平均为4.75年一次,如果除去1950～1954年这段经济恢复期,则为4.25年波动一次。波幅最大的有3次,第一次是从1958年经济增长率波峰32.6%下降到1961年的谷底-33.5%,波幅为66.1%;第二次是从1965年波峰为19%下降到1967年的谷底-9.9%,波幅为28.9%;第三次是1969年波峰为25.3%下降到1974年的谷底1.9%,波幅为23.4%。
Looking back at the track of economic development in the past 40 years in our country, a total of eight cyclical economic fluctuations were observed in the 38 years from 1950 to 1988, with the elderly seven years and the shortest two years two, with an average of 4.75 years. If we remove 1950 to 1954 This period of economic recovery, it fluctuated for 4.25 years. Volatility was three times the first, down from 32.6% in 1958 to -33.5% at the bottom of 1961 with an amplitude of 66.1%; the second was from 19% in 1965 to 1967 -9.9% of the valley, the amplitude was 28.9%; the third was in 1969 the peak was 25.3% down to the bottom of 1974, 1.9%, amplitude was 23.4%.