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通过对我国主要木材产品的需求量、生产量与GDP进行梳理,运用二次移动平均法对未来的产量进行预测并分析木材产品供求差距,估算出2020年原木、锯材和人造板的需求量分别为13648万m~3、14897万m~3和47469万m~2。通过构建回归模型得到影响木材产品需求的影响因素有资源状况、产业结构和林业政策等,并参考以往的研究成果,预测出未来我国木材产品需求呈现增长态势,供求矛盾仍然突出,加大国內木材产品供给是解决供需平衡的重要途径。
By combing the demand, output and GDP of China’s major timber products, using the second moving average method to predict the future output and analyzing the gap between supply and demand of wood products, we estimate the demand of logs, lumber and wood-based panels in 2020 Respectively 136.48 million m 3,148.97 million m 3 and 4 47 469 m 2. The influencing factors of the demand for wood products, such as resource status, industrial structure and forestry policy, are obtained by constructing the regression model. Based on previous research results, the demand for wood products in China is predicted to increase in the future. The contradiction between supply and demand remains prominent. Product supply is an important way to solve the balance between supply and demand.