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目的:了解上海市在婚人群的二胎生育意愿,并探索其潜在的影响因素。方法:随机抽取上海市17个区县8 507名20~50岁在婚户籍人口进行二胎生育意愿调查,收集个人背景、经济状况等资料进行二胎生育意愿的影响因素分析。结果:在不考虑是否有政策约束时,35.16%的对象表示愿意生育二胎。现有孩子数为0个、文化程度高、家庭收入高的对象更倾向于选择生2个孩子,而年龄较大、健康状况较差、出生于上海本地、没有老人提供帮助的对象则不愿意生育二胎。结论:上海市在婚人群的二胎生育意愿不高。除生育政策外,个人背景、经济能力、社会文化等多方面因素制约着在婚人群的二胎生育意愿。
Objective: To understand the second child birth intention of married people in Shanghai and to explore its potential impact factors. Methods: A random sample of 8 507 aged 20-50-year-olds in 17 districts and counties in Shanghai was surveyed to investigate the wishes of second-womb births and to collect personal background, economic status and other data to analyze the influencing factors of second-womb childbirth wishes. Results: 35.16% of the respondents expressed their willingness to have a second child irrespective of whether there was a policy constraint. The existing number of children is 0, with high education level and high family income, they are more likely to choose to have 2 children, while those who are older and in poor health are born in Shanghai. Those who do not have the help of the elderly are reluctant Have two children. Conclusion: The second child birth intention of the married people in Shanghai is not high. In addition to childbirth policy, personal background, economic ability, social and cultural and other factors restrict the second child birth intention of married people.