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1959年至今的SP500盈利年均增长率为6.87%,而同期名义GDP的年均增长率为7.17%。我们可以看到,其长期而言保持同步增长,虽然在短期内利润率会随着经济周期的波动而出现剧烈的变化。考察SP500自1954年以来的市盈率变化,其中值为16.67,均值是17.33。若剔除90年代后期的高市盈率时代。在1954到1994的40年间,其市盈率的均值仅有14.84,在此期间20倍以上的市盈率都颇为少见。尽管SP500的市盈率波动范围较大,但总体而言,仍保持了一个相对稳定的区间,有回归均值的趋势。其根本原因在于投资者对其承担的风险所要求的必要回报,过高的估值水平必然会带来较低的回报。在上期的估值中我们提出A股合理估值区间为14～18倍,中轴在16倍左右。目前我们对模型没有较大的修正,但十年期国债收益率水平已较当时下降了80个基点左右,因此中轴已略有上移。当前沪深300指数的市盈率水平在17.31倍(流通股本加权),处于合理区间,没有明显的低估或高估。在当前股权风险溢价为5.5%的假设下,市场隐含的未来6年上市公司盈利的CAGR为11.05%。若假设未来5年上市公司盈利CAGR为11.5%,则当前市场的隐含风险溢价为6.7%,考虑到目前十年期国债收益率为4.2%,则隐含股权资本成本为10.9%。
The average annual growth rate of SP500 profit from 1959 up to 6.87%, while the nominal average annual growth rate of 7.17% over the same period. We can see that its long-term growth rate keeps growing at a steady pace, though the profit margin will fluctuate drastically in the short term as the economic cycle fluctuates. Looking at SP500 price-earnings ratio since 1954 changes, which is 16.67, the average is 17.33. Excluding the era of high price-earnings ratio in the late 1990s. In the 40 years from 1954 to 1994, the average price-earnings ratio of only 14.84, during which more than 20 times the price-earnings ratio are relatively rare. Despite the wide range of price-earnings multiples of the SP500, overall, it still maintains a relatively stable range and tends to return to the mean. The fundamental reason is that investors need to return the risk they are required for the return, too high a valuation level will inevitably bring lower returns. In the valuation of the previous period, we proposed a reasonable valuation range of A shares 14 to 18 times the central axis at about 16 times. Currently, we do not have any major amendments to the model, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has dropped by about 80 basis points from the time it was quoted. As a result, the central axis has moved slightly upward. The CSI 300 Index currently trades at a P / E of 17.31 times (weighted by circulating shares), within a reasonable range, with no apparent underestimation or overvaluation. Given the current equity risk premium of 5.5%, the CAGR of listed companies’ earnings implied by the market for the next 6 years is 11.05%. If the CAGR of listed companies is assumed to be 11.5% in the next 5 years, the implied risk premium of the current market is 6.7%. Considering that the current 10-year bond yield is 4.2%, the implied equity capital cost is 10.9%.