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目的预测手足口病优势病原和发病规模,为疫情研判和防控提供依据。方法用聚类分析方法对月度手足口病病原构成进行聚类,以聚类后的类别作为时间点状态,建立转移概率矩阵,预测最有可能出现的手足口病病原构成比例,并以此估计重症死亡的规模。结果手足口病病原构成聚类为6类,各类间病原构成比例、重症数和死亡数差异均有统计学意义(P<0.001),2014年11月手足口病病原构成较大可能处于状态6。结论 2014年11月手足口病病原构成有88.9%的可能以其他肠道病毒为主,出现死亡病例概率低,而出现1~3例重症病例的可能性较大。
Objective To predict the prevalence of hand-foot-mouth disease and its incidence, and provide the basis for the judgment and prevention of the epidemic. Methods Clustering analysis was used to cluster the pathogens of hand-foot-mouth disease in monthly, and the clustering category was used as the time-point state to establish the transition probability matrix and predict the proportion of the most likely pathogens of HFMD. The scale of severe death. Results The pathogens of hand-foot-mouth disease clustered into 6 categories. The proportions of pathogens among the groups, the number of severe cases and the number of death cases were statistically different (P <0.001). In November 2014, the pathogens of hand-foot-mouth disease were more likely to be in the state 6. Conclusions 88.9% of the pathogens of hand-foot-mouth disease in November 2014 are likely to be caused by other enteroviruses, with a low probability of death and a high probability of occurrence of 1 to 3 severe cases.