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本文在跟踪研究国内、外可靠性预计技术发展动态的基础上，分析比较了美国MIL－HDBK－217系列和我国GJB／Z299手册的发展情况；论述了考虑早期失效、试验与现场数据、环境应力筛选等因素的预计法及各方法的代表模型；就建模基础、元器件覆盖面、费用、适用范围等方面，对新兴的失效物理学预计法与217为代表的统计学方法进行了较全面的比较分析。本文对我国可靠性预计技术的进一步发展和提高有一定的参考作用。
This paper analyzes and compares the developments of the MIL-HDBK-217 series in the United States and the GJB / Z299 manual in our country on the basis of tracking the development of the domestic and overseas reliability prediction technologies. Screening and other factors of the predictive method and the representative of the representative model of each method; on the basis of modeling, component coverage, cost, scope of application, the emerging theory of failure physics and 217 represented by the statistical methods were more comprehensive comparative analysis. This paper has certain reference function for the further development and improvement of the reliability prediction technology in our country.