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本文就英德地区十三年的气象要素与油桐尺蠖越冬代始蛾、盛蛾期的关系进行分析研究,探明越冬代始蛾期与上年十二月至当年三月的有效积温及上年十二月至当年三月的地表面平均温度和有密切的关系。其相关系数分别为r=-0.8296和r=-0.827,回归方程分别是y=18.47-0.033 X_1和y=38.73-0.62X_2;同理,越冬代盛蛾期与当年三月份平均温度及始蛾期亦关系密切,其相关系数分别为r=-0.72和r=0.73,回归方程分别是y=58.48-2.892X_3和y=8.68+0.98X_4。通过运算得出始蛾、盛蛾期二元一次回归方程分别是y=39.66+0.002 X_1-0.64X_2和y=45.96-2.22X_3+0.40 X_4,对86年进行预报验证,结果与实测值吻合。
This paper analyzes the relationship between thirteen years of meteorological elements in the Indo-German region and overwintering progeny moths and thylakoid moths in the area of overwintering, and finds out the effective accumulated temperature of the overwintering moth and the previous December to the current March The average surface temperature of December last year to March of this year is closely related. The correlation coefficients were r = -0.8296 and r = -0.827 respectively. The regression equations were y = 18.47-0.033 X_1 and y = 38.73-0.62X_2 respectively. Similarly, the average temperature in March and the average temperature in March The correlation coefficients are r = -0.72 and r = 0.73, respectively. The regression equations are y = 58.48-2.892X_3 and y = 8.68 + 0.98X_4, respectively. The results showed that the bivariate regression equations of y-shaped moth and y-shaped moth were y = 39.66 + 0.002 X_1-0.64X_2 and y = 45.96-2.22X_3 + 0.40 X_4, respectively. The results of 86 years were consistent with the measured values.