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中国爆发金融危机的风险较低。中共十八届三中全会期间提出采用市场导向的存款利率自由化和消除自然垄断之外的国家垄断,这些改革措施将成为中国重要的经济增长驱动力。中国过去信贷拉动的增长路径显然是不可持续的,但金融危机并非不可避免。中国需要放缓其信贷增长。与此同时,如果存款利率放开,而服务业等之前国有垄断的产业向私人投资开放,更多的资金就会流向私有企业。由于这些企业的平均资产回报率是国有企业的2倍以上,这种信贷再分配将加强中国的增长潜力,并使中国在逐步降低投资依赖的同时维持较高的经济增速。
The risk of a financial crisis in China is low. During the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, China adopted the market-oriented liberalization of interest rates on deposits and the elimination of state monopolies outside the natural monopoly. These reform measures will become China’s important driving force for economic growth. China’s credit-led growth path in the past is obviously unsustainable, but the financial crisis is not inevitable. China needs to slow down its credit growth. At the same time, if deposit rates are liberalized and state-owned monopolies such as service industries are opened up to private investment, more money flows to private-sector firms. As the average ROA of these enterprises is more than double that of SOEs, such redistribution of credit will strengthen China’s growth potential and allow China to maintain its high economic growth while gradually reducing its investment dependency.