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The luxury goods consumption is growing in China, making it a new haven for the global luxury goods. But who are the main force of the luxury goods consumption in China?
Presently China is undoubtedly the most promising land for luxury goods in the world. According to the estimation, there are more than 4.4 million rich families in China. The Boston Consulting Group forecasted that luxury goods consumption in China will account for 32% of the global market in 2015 and by then China will be the largest luxury goods market in the world.
Well then, who will consist of the main force of the luxury goods in China? What kinds of people are the luxury goods targeting?
Who Is the “Middle Class”?
“China is not like the European countries in which middle-class people account for the biggest part of the population in the next 30 years. Therefore, the middle-class people can not be the mainstream consumers of the low- and middle-end luxury brands in China,” said Wang Depei, director of Shanghai Forecast Think Tank on March 27.
Wang Depei divides the luxury goods into three classes: the luxury goods whose single price is 10 million yuan (USD 1.46 million) belong to the top class; the middle-class luxury goods are the ones whose single price lies between 5 million and 10 million yuan (USD 732.5 thousand and 1.46 million) and the goods with single price lower than 5 million yuan (USD 732.5 thousand) belong to the low class. It is widely known that the middle class in Europe used to be the biggest pursuer of the luxury brands, especially these low- and middle brands. However, when the financial crisis began to rob their wallets, they could not afford as many luxury goods as before.
“The scale of the middle class is shrinking in the western countries, which means the collapse of the pillar for luxury goods consumption in these countries. The Asian countries may take the dominant place,” said Wang Depei. “In today’s international luxury goods consumption market, Japan stands at the first place and China takes the second place. However, China’s GDP per capita is only 3,000 US dollars, much less than Japan’s 40,000 US dollars. In China, only 3 percent of its total population consumes 560 million yuan (USD 82.04 million) each year. Most of these people are the first ones getting rich after the reform and opening up. They don’t belong to the middle class; instead, they are at the top consumption levels in China. Certainly, they play a main role in China’s luxury goods market, especially those high-end luxury goods.”
But some of the luxury goods manufacturers disagree with Wang Depei’s words. Lu Xiaoming, chief executive of the Germany-based luxury pen manufacturer Montblanc International’s branch in China, is one of them. He said: “In my opinion, the middle class is growing up in China and in the next thirty years they will become the pillar for low- and medium-end luxury goods consumption in China.”
Meanwhile, Lu Xiaoming, who is a veteran in China’s luxury goods market, said: “The middle class in China will not be like their European peers who are usually older than 30 nor like the ones in Japan who are mostly the kids. These people are usually born in the 1980s or 1990s. They have better understandings of the luxury brands and are more willing to buy the luxuries. Some people born in the 1980s have already entered into some emerging industries like IT and accumulated certain amount of wealth quickly. These people are also devised with strong consumption will.”
“These people, who we refer to as the new nobles in China, will be the mainstream power for China’s luxury goods consumption,” said Lu. “But they are so acquainted with the luxury goods. Therefore, guide and introduction of more brands are needed in China.”
Michel Chevalier, partner and general manager of EIM Paris’ Shanghai Office thought it difficult to make a clear definition for middle class. “In my opinion,” he said. “The future middle class in China will consist of the people with the annual income of larger than 25,000 US dollars. Different from the US middle class, the middle class in China doesn’t have a clear gap with the rich and the poor. We can call them the “poor people among the rich” or the “rich people among the poor”.
Where Is the New Power?
“Consumption happens every day,” said Wang Depei. “If giving a 30 years’ prospect, I would like to say that 10 thousand new-born urban babies should be the biggest target for the luxury goods in China.”
“Once I asked a young mother in Shanghai about the everyday consumption for her 7-month-old baby, the answer is ‘100,000 yuan (USD 14.65 thousand) in seven months’,” said Wang. “She is a typical example of young mothers in the Chinese cities. These newborn babies can enjoy good material conditions since they were born and will be the main consumption power of luxury goods when they grow up.”
On April 2, 2010, Baby Dior was officially established in China. Its first store was located at the fourth floor of Shanghai Plaza 66 – a landmark building of Shanghai. Baby Dior became the first luxury brand especially targeting the children.
“As for the prospect in the next ten years, the booming high-speed railway in China will also exert great influence upon the luxury brands’ distribution in China,” said Wang Depei. “The high-speed railways can connect any provinces in China except Xinjiang and Tibet by 2020. Traveling between major cities in China will cost less than 6 hours. This will reduce the gap between the first-tier cities, the second-tier cities and the third-tier cities. Meanwhile, the developed transportation will change the consumption habits of the consumers in these places. They will be provided with more choices of which brands to buy and where to buy these luxuries. The luxury brand developers should consider on which streets the stores will be opened instead of in which cities the stores will be located.” For example, Nanjing Road and Band in Shanghai used to be the gathering place for the international brands. Right now the two places are differed by their orientations. The Band will host the top luxury brands while Nanjing Road will assemble the low- and medium-end luxury goods. “The distribution of top luxury brands will change with their consumers. With the development of finance in China, the Band will attract a lot of rich people with great consumption power. Therefore, the Band will be the main gathering place for top luxury brands in China,” said Wang Depei.
Lu Xiaoming, who advocates the idea of “more luxury goods in China’s second- and third-tier cities”, said: “The rich people in China are living in the major cities, as well as the second- and third-tier cities. But 70% of them live outside the major cities like Beijing and Shanghai. The middle class in the second- and third-tier cities will power up the luxury goods consumption in the future.”
Michel Chevalier said: “It is hard to sell luxury goods in big shopping malls in China, which is different from the other countries. Internet will be a main distribution channel of luxury goods sale. The rent for an outlet in a Chinese shopping mall is usually very high and will damage the margin of luxury goods sellers.”
Presently China is undoubtedly the most promising land for luxury goods in the world. According to the estimation, there are more than 4.4 million rich families in China. The Boston Consulting Group forecasted that luxury goods consumption in China will account for 32% of the global market in 2015 and by then China will be the largest luxury goods market in the world.
Well then, who will consist of the main force of the luxury goods in China? What kinds of people are the luxury goods targeting?
Who Is the “Middle Class”?
“China is not like the European countries in which middle-class people account for the biggest part of the population in the next 30 years. Therefore, the middle-class people can not be the mainstream consumers of the low- and middle-end luxury brands in China,” said Wang Depei, director of Shanghai Forecast Think Tank on March 27.
Wang Depei divides the luxury goods into three classes: the luxury goods whose single price is 10 million yuan (USD 1.46 million) belong to the top class; the middle-class luxury goods are the ones whose single price lies between 5 million and 10 million yuan (USD 732.5 thousand and 1.46 million) and the goods with single price lower than 5 million yuan (USD 732.5 thousand) belong to the low class. It is widely known that the middle class in Europe used to be the biggest pursuer of the luxury brands, especially these low- and middle brands. However, when the financial crisis began to rob their wallets, they could not afford as many luxury goods as before.
“The scale of the middle class is shrinking in the western countries, which means the collapse of the pillar for luxury goods consumption in these countries. The Asian countries may take the dominant place,” said Wang Depei. “In today’s international luxury goods consumption market, Japan stands at the first place and China takes the second place. However, China’s GDP per capita is only 3,000 US dollars, much less than Japan’s 40,000 US dollars. In China, only 3 percent of its total population consumes 560 million yuan (USD 82.04 million) each year. Most of these people are the first ones getting rich after the reform and opening up. They don’t belong to the middle class; instead, they are at the top consumption levels in China. Certainly, they play a main role in China’s luxury goods market, especially those high-end luxury goods.”
But some of the luxury goods manufacturers disagree with Wang Depei’s words. Lu Xiaoming, chief executive of the Germany-based luxury pen manufacturer Montblanc International’s branch in China, is one of them. He said: “In my opinion, the middle class is growing up in China and in the next thirty years they will become the pillar for low- and medium-end luxury goods consumption in China.”
Meanwhile, Lu Xiaoming, who is a veteran in China’s luxury goods market, said: “The middle class in China will not be like their European peers who are usually older than 30 nor like the ones in Japan who are mostly the kids. These people are usually born in the 1980s or 1990s. They have better understandings of the luxury brands and are more willing to buy the luxuries. Some people born in the 1980s have already entered into some emerging industries like IT and accumulated certain amount of wealth quickly. These people are also devised with strong consumption will.”
“These people, who we refer to as the new nobles in China, will be the mainstream power for China’s luxury goods consumption,” said Lu. “But they are so acquainted with the luxury goods. Therefore, guide and introduction of more brands are needed in China.”
Michel Chevalier, partner and general manager of EIM Paris’ Shanghai Office thought it difficult to make a clear definition for middle class. “In my opinion,” he said. “The future middle class in China will consist of the people with the annual income of larger than 25,000 US dollars. Different from the US middle class, the middle class in China doesn’t have a clear gap with the rich and the poor. We can call them the “poor people among the rich” or the “rich people among the poor”.
Where Is the New Power?
“Consumption happens every day,” said Wang Depei. “If giving a 30 years’ prospect, I would like to say that 10 thousand new-born urban babies should be the biggest target for the luxury goods in China.”
“Once I asked a young mother in Shanghai about the everyday consumption for her 7-month-old baby, the answer is ‘100,000 yuan (USD 14.65 thousand) in seven months’,” said Wang. “She is a typical example of young mothers in the Chinese cities. These newborn babies can enjoy good material conditions since they were born and will be the main consumption power of luxury goods when they grow up.”
On April 2, 2010, Baby Dior was officially established in China. Its first store was located at the fourth floor of Shanghai Plaza 66 – a landmark building of Shanghai. Baby Dior became the first luxury brand especially targeting the children.
“As for the prospect in the next ten years, the booming high-speed railway in China will also exert great influence upon the luxury brands’ distribution in China,” said Wang Depei. “The high-speed railways can connect any provinces in China except Xinjiang and Tibet by 2020. Traveling between major cities in China will cost less than 6 hours. This will reduce the gap between the first-tier cities, the second-tier cities and the third-tier cities. Meanwhile, the developed transportation will change the consumption habits of the consumers in these places. They will be provided with more choices of which brands to buy and where to buy these luxuries. The luxury brand developers should consider on which streets the stores will be opened instead of in which cities the stores will be located.” For example, Nanjing Road and Band in Shanghai used to be the gathering place for the international brands. Right now the two places are differed by their orientations. The Band will host the top luxury brands while Nanjing Road will assemble the low- and medium-end luxury goods. “The distribution of top luxury brands will change with their consumers. With the development of finance in China, the Band will attract a lot of rich people with great consumption power. Therefore, the Band will be the main gathering place for top luxury brands in China,” said Wang Depei.
Lu Xiaoming, who advocates the idea of “more luxury goods in China’s second- and third-tier cities”, said: “The rich people in China are living in the major cities, as well as the second- and third-tier cities. But 70% of them live outside the major cities like Beijing and Shanghai. The middle class in the second- and third-tier cities will power up the luxury goods consumption in the future.”
Michel Chevalier said: “It is hard to sell luxury goods in big shopping malls in China, which is different from the other countries. Internet will be a main distribution channel of luxury goods sale. The rent for an outlet in a Chinese shopping mall is usually very high and will damage the margin of luxury goods sellers.”