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传统贸易理论认为汇率升值会导致出口量的下降,但我国在2002~2013年的大部分时间里,人民币升值过程中出口规模仍然在持续扩张,该现象可称为“中国出口贸易之谜”。文章提出一个以生产率提高为主要内容的“生产率冲击”因素来解释中国的出口贸易之谜。通过利用我国出口量数据,以双边实际汇率、国外收入及中国绝对生产率水平或相对生产率水平为解释变量进行面板协整,结果表明收入和生产率的影响均显著为正,而汇率的影响显著为负,均符合理论预期。
According to the traditional trade theory, the appreciation of the exchange rate will lead to the decline of the export volume. However, in most of 2002 and 2013, the scale of export in the process of RMB appreciation is still expanding continuously. This phenomenon may be called “the mystery of China’s export trade ”. The article proposes a “productivity shock” factor that focuses on productivity growth to explain the mystery of China’s export trade. By using the data of China’s exports, panel cointegration is conducted using the bilateral real exchange rate, foreign income, and China’s absolute or relative productivity as explanatory variables. The results show that both income and productivity are significantly positive while the impact of exchange rate is significantly negative , Are in line with the theoretical expectation.