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内容摘要:在一体化所包括的诸多方面,我们讨论了开放经济条件下经济增长与结构变化的长期动态,仔细考察了可持续增长领域的发展以及国际间相互依存关系的基本经济动态学,理论部分则强调了同需求方和供给方(在理论创新的范围之内)有关的国际联系。后者主要意味着一个包含了技术效应和FDI在内的更为广泛的投入品的生产函数。对有效的国际专业化(Efficient International Specialization)与有效的黄金国际专业化(Golden Efficient International Specialization)之间的差异首次进行了讨论。此外,所提出的新的中期宏观经济模型显示,货币政策和财政政策的影响乘数的信号(Tle Signs of ImpactMultipliers)远比短期蒙代尔一弗莱明模型所显示的信号要更加不确定;这个发现指出了有必要开展更多的实证研究。此外,对一个包含了FDI的两国增长模型也做了讨论,并且对可持续发展的比较方面(即真实净储蓄率的跨国差异)连同有关主要欧盟国家有力的发现一道进行了讨论。至于欧盟的那些方面,对《里斯本日程表》(The LisbonAgenda)做了讨论,并得出了不同的政策结论。从可持续增长的高潜力的角度考虑,欧元区拥有诸多的强项;与此同时,人们不能忽视老龄化和相对薄弱的审慎监管所带来的严重挑战。欧盟东扩应该有助于欧盟的长期增长。如果欧元区能够实现持续增长和恢复充分就业,人们预期东盟国家(ASEAN)将更加认真地考虑将欧盟一体化作为一个蓝图,并在亚洲推进更深层次的区域一体化。跨大西洋银行危机对美国和英国产生了负面影响,而欧元区只在一个较小的范围内遭受了冲击,然而,波罗的海国家却面临一个严重问题,因为他们对于欧元保持固定的汇率和存在较高的经常账目赤字以及较高的外债—GDP比率。在应对跨大西洋银行危机的背景下,8国集团向20国集团的转变意味着对欧盟的一种削弱,因为欧盟在20国集团中并没有代表。
Abstract: In many aspects of integration, we have discussed the long-term dynamics of economic growth and structural changes in an open economy. We have carefully examined the development of sustainable growth and the basic economic dynamics of international interdependence. Theories Some emphasize international links with both demand and supply sides (within the scope of theoretical innovations). The latter mainly implies a production function of a wider range of inputs, including technical effects and FDI. For the first time, the difference between effective international specialization and effective Golden Efficient International Specialization was discussed. In addition, the proposed new mid-term macroeconomic model shows that the Tle Signs of Impact Multipliers of monetary and fiscal policies are far more uncertain than the signals shown by the short-run Mundell-Fleming models; This finding points to the need for more empirical research. In addition, a two-country model of growth that includes FDI is also discussed, and the comparative aspects of sustainable development (transnational differences in net real saving rates) are discussed together with strong findings from major EU countries. With regard to those aspects of the EU, the Lisbon Agenda was discussed and different policy conclusions were drawn. In the context of the high potential for sustained growth, the eurozone has many strengths; at the same time one can not ignore the serious challenges posed by aging and relatively weak prudential regulation. The EU expansion should contribute to the long-term growth of the EU. If the euro zone is to achieve sustained growth and full employment recovery, it is expected that the ASEAN countries will consider more seriously European Union integration as a blueprint and promote deeper regional integration in Asia. The transatlantic banking crisis has had a negative impact on the United States and the United Kingdom, and the euro zone has been hit only to a lesser extent. However, the Baltic countries are facing a serious problem as they maintain a fixed exchange rate against the euro and are at a high level Current account deficit and higher foreign debt-GDP ratio. In the context of the transatlantic crisis, the shift of the Group of Eight to the Group of 20 means a weakening of the European Union because the EU is not represented in the G-20.