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改革开放以来,我国出口高速增长,能源消耗也大幅增加,“高出口、高能耗”成为我国外贸及经济增长的重要特征。本文采用投入产出分析方法,对2005年我国22个贸易产业部门的出口贸易与能源消耗进行了实证研究。结论是:2005年我国内涵能源净出口量为5.79亿吨标准煤,是内涵能源净出口大国。若保持过去30年17.19%的出口增速,按照2005年投入产出数值计算,到2030年我国净出口内涵能源将超出我国能源总产量的8倍,这显然是不可行的。作为人均能源稀缺的国家,我国必须转变出口模式,依据能耗强度高低对不同出口产业部门给予鼓励或限制,推动节能型出口产品结构调整,以实现经济的可持续发展。对此,本文提出了相应的政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up, China’s exports have been growing rapidly and their energy consumption has also risen sharply. “High exports and high energy consumption” have become an important feature of China’s foreign trade and economic growth. This paper uses the input-output analysis method to conduct an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 22 trade sectors in 2005 in China. The conclusion is: In 2005, China’s net export of energy was 579 million tons of standard coal, which is a big net exporter of energy. If we maintain the export growth rate of 17.19% over the past 30 years, according to the 2005 input-output value calculation, it is obviously not feasible for the net energy content of our net exports to exceed 8 times the total energy output of our country by 2030. As a country with scarce energy per capita, China must change its mode of exportation, encourage or restrict different export industries according to the intensity of energy consumption, and promote the structural adjustment of energy-saving export products in order to achieve sustainable economic development. In this regard, this paper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.