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本文利用空间面板数据模型考察了东亚10国(地区)之间的生产分割现象,发现各国(地区)制造业的发展存在明显的正向空间相互依存关系。但同时,不同国家(地区)的空间依存关系存在异质性,其中韩国、中国台湾、中国香港和日本的制造业发展对中国内地制造业的发展影响较大;另一方面,中国内地制造业的发展对韩国、日本、中国台湾和中国香港的制造业影响也很大。这个发现有助于解释最近20年东亚各经济体的协同发展,并且这也说明所谓中国内地成为“世界工厂”的同时抢走了周边其他国家(地区)制造业的“中国威胁论”是不成立的;恰恰相反,生产分割导致的国际生产分工有效地促进了东亚各国(地区)制造业的同步发展。
In this paper, we use the spatial panel data model to examine the production segregation among 10 countries (regions) in East Asia and find that there is a clear positive spatial interdependence between the manufacturing industries in different countries. However, at the same time, the spatial dependence of different countries and regions is heterogeneous. Among them, the development of manufacturing in South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan has a greater impact on the manufacturing industry in mainland China. On the other hand, the manufacturing industry in mainland China The development of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong’s manufacturing sector also has a great impact. This finding helps to explain the coordinated development of East Asian economies over the past two decades and also shows that the so-called Mainland China has become a “world factory” while snatching manufacturing from other neighboring countries. "The China threat theory On the contrary, the division of international production caused by the division of production has effectively promoted the simultaneous development of manufacturing industries in various countries (regions) in East Asia.