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目的通过风险评估,探讨日照市乙脑、疟疾、登革热、丝虫病、基孔肯雅热和西尼罗热6种蚊媒传染病发生的可能性、危害性、人群易感性及综合风险大小,为针对性地开展蚊虫媒介防治,做好当地蚊媒传染病的防控提供依据。方法应用德尔菲法,邀请各相关领域专家评分,最后根据既定风险评估方案,计算6种蚊媒传染病传播流行风险等级,综合评价蚊媒传染病的风险大小。结果通过3轮专家风险评估,专家积极系数为1.00,3个方面的权威系数分别为0.71、0.74和0.72,协调系数分别为0.69、0.66和0.67,专家意见趋势一致。对单个蚊媒传染病病种/聚集性疫情在日照市传播流行的可能性、危害性和易感性进行综合分析,乙脑(8.58)和疟疾(8.01)综合风险为高,登革热(7.77)的综合风险为中等,丝虫病(5.94)、基孔肯雅热(4.61)和西尼罗热(4.10)的综合风险为低。结论日照市今后蚊媒传染病防控工作应重点关注风险高和较高的蚊媒传染病。完善相应蚊媒传染病应急预案,定期开展蚊虫媒介的监测,努力做好蚊媒传染病的防控工作。
Objective To assess the possibility, risk, population susceptibility and comprehensive risk of six mosquito-borne infectious diseases including JE, malaria, dengue, filariasis, chikungunya and west nile in Rizhao City through risk assessment , To provide the basis for prevention and control of mosquito-borne infectious diseases in a targeted manner for prevention and control of mosquito vectors. Methods Delphi method was used to invite experts from all related fields to scoring. Finally, according to the established risk assessment program, the epidemic risks of 6 mosquito vectors were calculated and the risk of mosquito - borne diseases was evaluated comprehensively. The results of three expert risk assessment through the expert positive coefficient of 1.00, three aspects of the authoritative coefficient were 0.71,0.74 and 0.72, coordination coefficient was 0.69,0.66 and 0.67, the same trend of expert opinion. A comprehensive analysis of the possibility, risk and susceptibility of a single mosquito-borne infectious disease / cluster epidemic in the spread of Rizhao City showed a high overall risk of JE (8.58) and malaria (8.01) and a high risk of dengue fever (7.77) The combined risk for Moderate, Filariasis (5.94), Chikungunya (4.61) and West Nile (4.10) is low. Conclusion The prevention and control of mosquito-borne infectious diseases in Rizhao should focus on the high-risk mosquito-borne infectious diseases. Improve the corresponding contingency plan for mosquito-borne infectious diseases, carry out regular monitoring of mosquito vectors, and work hard to prevent and control mosquito-borne infectious diseases.