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房地产调控至今已有两年多,房价终于出现连续多月回调的行情,社会各方似乎渐渐满意。然而城门失火,殃及池鱼。由于房地产行业关联性强、替代性差,房地产调控导致投资持续下滑,大大牵制了宏观经济的增长。调控目前进入两难境地,一方面,由于需求被人为压制,政策一旦全面放开,房价报复性反弹的可能性极大,政策突围存在障碍;另一方面,宏观经济下行压力迫使政府不得不采取一定的措施。在此背景下,政策开始试探性地进行结构性调整,受到社会保护的刚性需求首先受到支持。在分析行业的趋势前,我们可以先简单回顾一下2012年上半年的相关政策。首先,中央坚持调控,国家相关部门领导在多种场合多次强调房地产调控不放松、
Real estate regulation has been more than two years so far, housing prices finally appear for more than a month callback market, all sectors of society seem to be gradually satisfied. However, the city gate fire, affecting fish ponds. As the real estate industry, strong correlation, poor alternative, real estate regulation led to the continued decline in investment, greatly hindered the growth of the macroeconomy. Regulating the current dilemma, on the one hand, as the demand is artificially suppressed, once the policy is fully liberalized, there is a great possibility of a retaliatory rebound in housing prices and there are obstacles in policy breakthrough. On the other hand, downward pressure on the macroeconomic pressure has forced the government to take certain measures The measure. In this context, the policy has tentatively carried out structural adjustments and the rigid demand for social protection is first of all supported. Before analyzing the trend of the industry, we can briefly review the relevant policies in the first half of 2012. First of all, the Central Government upholds regulation and control and the leaders of the relevant state departments on many occasions have repeatedly stressed that real estate regulation and control will not be relaxed.