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在北京举办的毕业研究生双选会上,2005届研究生月薪期望值底线已经跌破3000元,而在往年研究生月薪期望值一般在4000-5000元。媒体认为这是毕业生理性的表现,而笔者以为,这恰是社会经济的非理性表现,它折射着当前劳动力供过于求和就业困难的实际状况。根据权威部门统计公布数据,虽然当前城镇登记失业率只有4.3%,同世界上许多国家比较都不算高。但我国农村还有上亿人的富余劳动力亟待就业,城镇每年也有1000万左右新增劳动力必须安置就业。(11月18日《中国工商时报》)。这组数据必须引起政府与社会各界的重视。1957年,新西兰经济学家菲利普斯根据英国近百年的资料,画出了一条通货膨胀与失业关系之间的曲线,即著名的菲利普斯曲线。这条曲线表明:失业与通货膨胀存在一种交替关系,通货膨胀率高时,失业率低;通货膨胀率低时,失业率高。20世纪60年代,美国经济学家萨缪尔森和索洛根据美国资料证明了菲利普斯曲线所表示的关系在美国同样存在,根据这种关系来指导宏观经济政策,以紧缩或扩张的财政与货币政策,可以将通货膨胀率和失业率控制在社会可接受的水平之内。中国人民银行最近公布的第三季度货币政策执行报告也称,在今年前三季度中,CPI同比上
Graduate held in Beijing at the double graduation ceremony, the 2005 graduate monthly salary expectations has fallen below 3,000 yuan bottom line, while in previous years the expected monthly salary of graduate students generally 4000-5000 yuan. The media think this is the graduates of rational performance, and I believe that this is precisely the social and economic irrational performance, it reflects the current labor supply situation of oversupply and employment difficulties. According to statistics released by authoritative departments, although the unemployment rate registered in urban areas is only 4.3%, it is not high compared with many other countries in the world. However, there are still hundreds of millions of surplus laborers in rural areas who are in urgent need of employment. In cities and towns, about 10 million new labors each year must be placed in employment. (China Business Times on November 18). This set of data must arouse the attention of the government and all sectors of society. In 1957, according to nearly a hundred years of British data, New Zealand economist Phillips drew a curve between inflation and unemployment, the famous Phillips curve. This curve shows that there is an alternating relationship between unemployment and inflation. Unemployment is low when inflation is high, and unemployment is high when inflation is low. In the 1960s, American economists Samuelson and Solothie proved from the U.S. data that the relationship represented by the Phillips curve also exists in the United States. According to this relationship, macroeconomic policies are guided in order to tighten or expand fiscal and Monetary policy can keep inflation and unemployment rates within acceptable levels in the community. The People's Bank of China recently announced the implementation of the third quarter monetary policy report also said that in the first three quarters of this year, CPI year on year