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基于内蒙古锡林郭勒地区14个气象站的1961-2012年牧草生长季的标准化降水指数(SPI),采用滑动平均法、最小二乘法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法研究各气象站点牧草生长季内降水量和SPI的变化趋势,并利用反距离权重法(IDW)分析该区域牧草生长季干旱的空间演变特征,最后结合加权马尔科夫模型对区域未来干旱状态进行预测。主要结果与结论如下:锡林郭勒地区牧草生长季干旱化程度有所升高,牧草生长季总降水量以1.92mm/10a的速度减少,SPI指数以0.06/10a的速度降低,但二连浩特与东乌珠穆沁旗站点的降水量有缓慢增加的趋势;区域干旱整体趋势具有明显的空间差异性,牧草生长季干旱状况从西北向东南逐渐加重,尤其是区域东南部最为严重;对区域未来牧草生长季干旱变化情况进行预测,区域2013-2016年干旱化程度会进一步加深。
Based on the normalized precipitation index (SPI) of forage growing season from 1961 to 2012 at 14 weather stations in Xilinguole area, Inner Mongolia, the average precipitation of forage growing season and the Mann-Kendall trend test SPI was used to analyze the spatial variation of drought in pasture growing season in this region by using inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. Finally, a weighted Markov model was used to predict future regional drought conditions. The main results and conclusions are as follows: During the growing season of Xilingol Region, the degree of aridification increased, the total precipitation decreased by 1.92mm / 10a during the growth season, and the SPI index decreased by 0.06 / 10a. However, Erenhot and Dongwuzhu The precipitation in Muqinqi site tended to increase slowly. The overall trend of regional drought had obvious spatial difference. The drought condition in pasture growing season increased gradually from northwest to southeast, especially in the southeastern part of the region. Drought changes in the region to predict the regional drought in 2013-2016 will further deepen.