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目的探讨Rogerson空间模式监测方法在登革热病例聚集早期预警中的应用价值。方法利用Rogerson空间模式监测方法对广东省2005-2011年登革热疫情数据进行回顾性分析,得出最佳监测参数组合。用该组合分析登革热高发年份2006年和低发年份2009年,比较预警结果与实际发病的拟合情况。本研究同时采用Kulldorff时空扫描统计量方法分析上述数据,比较两种方法的优劣。结果 Rogerson空间模式监测方法可早期及时发现登革热病例聚集,在登革热早期预警中具有一定应用价值。与Kulldorff时空扫描统计量方法相比,Rogerson空间模式监测可更精确地探测登革热病例聚集,提供更为详细的预警时间,并可提供所有监测区域的聚集信息,但聚集区域判断方面较为繁琐,不够直观。Kullforff则可直接报告聚集区域,但其所提供的聚集时间不如前者精确详细,且不能报告所有监测地区的聚集情况。结论两种方法各有优缺点,应结合使用,发挥最大功效。
Objective To explore the application value of Rogerson space pattern monitoring method in early warning of aggregation of dengue cases. Methods The epidemiological data of dengue fever in Guangdong Province during 2005-2011 were retrospectively analyzed by using the Rogerson space model monitoring method to obtain the best combination of monitoring parameters. The combination analysis of high incidence of dengue year 2006 and low incidence year 2009, comparison of early warning results and the actual incidence of the fit. In the meantime, Kulldorff spatio-temporal scanning statistical method was used to analyze the above data, and the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods were compared. Results The Rogerson space pattern monitoring method could detect the agglutination of dengue cases in time in a timely manner and had certain application value in the early warning of dengue fever. Compared with Kulldorff spatio-temporal scanning statistics, Rogerson space-based monitoring can detect dengue cases more accurately, provide more detailed warning time, and provide aggregated information for all monitored areas. However, aggregated area judgments are cumbersome and inadequate Intuitive. Kullforff reports agglomeration areas directly, but offers less time to aggregate than the former and does not report aggregations across all surveys. Conclusion Both methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, should be used in combination, to maximize effectiveness.