论文部分内容阅读
面对税收的快速增长,不能笼统地判定为税负太高了,或是说政府在实施逆向调节,而应对其增长因素进行具体分析。通过分析发现,当前税收的快速增长,有许多临时性因素的作用,并不代表长期趋势。若去掉这些临时性因素(各年不同),税收增长和经济增长是大体合适的。是否应当减税?仅仅依据经济学上“减税可以刺激经济”的信条,以及世界减税潮流是远远不够的,关键要分析在我国目前的具体条件下,减税是否有效。不进行具体深入的分析,凭直觉、看国外来提出减税主张,是没有说服力的。文章认为,目前我国实施减税政策不会有效果。相反,负面效应会大于正面效应。因为要使减税产生效果,不是无条件的,而我国目前并不具备减税发挥作用的条件。从理论上看,传统的信条未必正确,减税未必一定会刺激需求,而增税也未必一定会抑制需求,到底怎样,要视具体情况而定。
In the face of the rapid growth of tax revenues, it can not be generally judged that the tax burden is too high, or that the government is carrying out reverse regulation and that a specific analysis of its growth factors should be conducted. Through the analysis, we found that the current rapid tax revenue growth has many temporary factors and does not represent the long-term trend. If we remove these temporary factors (different from year to year), tax growth and economic growth are generally appropriate. Whether tax cuts should be based solely on the credo of economics that “tax cuts can stimulate the economy,” and that the world tax reduction trend is far from enough. The key point is to analyze whether the tax cuts are effective under the current specific conditions in our country. Without concrete and in-depth analysis, it is not convincing to look at the proposals of foreign countries for tax reduction by intuition. The article believes that the current implementation of tax cuts in China will not be effective. On the contrary, the negative effect will be greater than the positive effect. Because the effect of tax cuts is not unconditional, but our country does not currently have the conditions for tax cuts to play a role. In theory, the traditional creed may not be correct, tax cuts may not necessarily stimulate demand, and tax increases may not necessarily inhibit demand, in the end how, depending on the circumstances.