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本文基于改进的消费均衡理论,利用单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验、协整分析及误差修正模型,检验1978～2011年间我国政府消费对居民消费的影响。结果表明:我国政府消费是居民消费的Granger原因;二者存在长期稳定的均衡关系,政府消费对居民消费的长期弹性为0.2933,即政府消费对居民消费产生挤入效应;短期内,政府消费增长率对居民消费增长率的短期弹性是0.1865,居民消费的短期波动偏离长期均衡的修正速度达到44.67%。现阶段,我国应通过实施扩张性的财政政策来刺激消费、扩大内需。具体建议是:财政政策应向以政府消费为中心的方向转变;合理控制行政管理费的增长;继续加大对文教、科学、卫生等事业的投入力度,加快社会保险制度的建立和健全。
Based on the improved theory of consumer equilibrium, this paper tests the influence of government consumption on resident consumption in China from 1978 to 2011 by unit root test, Granger causality test, cointegration analysis and error correction model. The results show that government consumption in our country is the Granger cause of household consumption. The long-term and stable equilibrium exists between the two. The long-term elasticity of government consumption to household consumption is 0.2933, that is, the government consumption has a crowding-in effect on household consumption. In the short term, the government consumption growth The short-term elasticity of the rate of growth to household consumption is 0.1865. The short-term fluctuation of household consumption deviates from the long-run equilibrium correction rate to 44.67%. At this stage, China should stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand through the implementation of an expansionary fiscal policy. Specific recommendations are: fiscal policy should shift to the direction of government spending; reasonably control the growth of administrative fees; continue to increase investment in education, science and health and other undertakings to speed up the establishment and soundness of the social insurance system.