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目的 评估冬季气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响程度。方法 利用海南省 8个气象站历年 1月份的月平均气温资料分析海南省冬季气候变暖的趋势和幅度。以 2 1℃作为适于登革热传播的最低温度 ,借助地理信息系统评估气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响 ,并从虫媒与流行病学方向对其进行解释。结果 海南省冬季气温呈明显上升趋势。东方的气温上升幅度最大 ,为 1.4℃ ,珊瑚岛气温上升幅度最小 ,为 0 .5℃ ,其他各站的气温变幅大都在 0 .7～ 1.3℃之间。至2 0 5 0年 ,2 1℃等值线最大北移距离可达 190km左右 ,近乎跨越海南省南北距离的 6 / 7;在埃及伊蚊日存活率P =0 .89情况下 ,位于海南省北部的琼海也具备了登革热终年流行的气温条件。结论 冬季气候变暖将使海南省半数以上的地区到 2 0 5 0年将具备登革热终年流行的气温条件。相应地区也应注意加强冬季登革热的监测预防工作。
Objective To evaluate the impact of winter warming on the epidemic potential of dengue fever in Hainan Province. Methods The monthly mean temperature data of 8 meteorological stations in Hainan Province in January were used to analyze the trend and magnitude of winter warming in Hainan Province. The effect of climate warming on the epidemic potential of dengue fever in Hainan Province was evaluated by GIS using 21 ℃ as the minimum temperature suitable for transmission of dengue fever and its interpretation was explained from the perspective of insect vector and epidemiology. Results The winter temperature in Hainan Province showed a clear upward trend. Temperatures in the east increased the most, at 1.4 ° C. Coral Island had the smallest increase in temperature of 0.5 ° C. The temperature changes at other stations were mostly between 0.7 and 1.3 ° C. By 2050, the maximum north-migrating distance of 2 1 ℃ is about 190km, nearly 6/7 of the distance between north and south of Hainan Province. In the case of Aedes aegypti viability day P = 0.89, Qionghai in the northern part of the province also possesses the temperature prevailing throughout the year. Conclusion The winter warming will make it possible for more than half of Hainan Provinces to have the year-round prevalence of dengue by 2005. Corresponding areas should also pay attention to strengthen the monitoring and prevention of dengue fever in winter.