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本文根据里下河地区建湖、兴化、盐城、宝应和阜宁共5个代表站，对1954-1993年共40年的梅雨期降水量和西太平洋副高脊线、588位势什米的西脊点等资料进行分析，发现里下河地区洪涝灾害与梅雨期开始时间早、持续时间长、暴雨频发和雨带稳定在里下河地区有关，而后者又与副热带高压活动特点以及西风带环流特征有密切的关系。分析上述5个代表站梅雨量、副局脊线的所在纬度和588位势什米特征线西脊点的功率谱，得出了2-3年、5年和12年的准周期变化，为预测里下河地区洪涝灾害的变化趋势提供了一定的依据。
Based on the five representative stations of Jianhu, Xinghua, Yancheng, Baoying and Funing in the Lixiahe area, the paper analyzes the precipitation during the Meiyu period of 1954-1993 and the precipitation of the subtropical high in the western Pacific, 588 The results show that the flood and flood disaster in the Lixiahe area is earlier and longer with the onset of the Meiyu period, with longer duration, frequent occurrence of rainstorms and stability of the rain belt in the Lixiahe area, while the latter is related to the subtropical high-pressure activity characteristics and The westerly circulation has a close relationship. After analyzing the meiyu, the latitude of the deputy bureau ridge and the power spectrum of the west ridge point of the 588 potential line in the above five representative stations, the quasi-periodic changes of 2-3 years, 5 years and 12 years are obtained, which are Provide a basis for forecasting the trend of flood disasters in Lixiahe area.