世界经济棋弈:第三局开始——2016年经济展望

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在世界经济棋弈中,棋手为各国主权政府。由于棋手在全球生产链、价值链上所处环节不同,其所采取的策略也必然不同,加之棋手水平各异,棋终结果自然不一。第一局我们经历了由“超级繁荣”向全球性危机的演变;第二局“撒票子”救危机的结果注定是险象环生。如今,第三局在险境中开局,不同的棋手、不同的利益与棋艺,全球经济棋弈的最终结果实难预期。不过有一点值得肯定,对各国而言,无论大小,能否充分认识到第一局危机形成的原因及第二局救市的教训,将成为其能否看清第三局开局态势、继续下好本国第三局的重要前提。 In the world economic chess game, chess players for the sovereign government of all countries. As players in the global production chain, different parts of the value chain, its strategy must be different, in addition to the different levels of chess players, the outcome of the game naturally different. The first game we experienced from “super prosperity” to the evolution of a global crisis; the second game “scatter votes ” the outcome of the crisis is bound to be dangerous. Today, the third game in the dangerous start, different players, different interests and chess, the final result of the global economic game is hard to predict. However, it is worth affirming that all countries, regardless of size, can fully understand the reasons for the formation of the crisis in the first bureau and the lesson learned from the rescue of the second game and will be able to see whether the situation in the third inning is good or not and continue to make good progress The important premise of the third inning of our country.
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