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基于栅格面积成分数据,构建了研究林地面积变化原因的计量经济模型,采用Tob it回归分析方法估计了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对江西省林地面积变化的影响。文章遴选出了包括人口、人均GDP、区位条件等在内的影响江西省林地面积变化的主要因素,分析了各种因素驱动江西省林地面积变化的机理,提出了江西省加强林地保护、促进林地面积增加的一个重要途径——加快经济发展,特别是通过加快基础设施建设促进相对落后地区的经济发展,发挥经济增长对林地保育的积极作用。同时研究还发现,积极转移农村剩余劳动力,减少人口对周边林地的压力,也是缓解江西省毁林垦荒压力的重要手段之一。研究结论为江西省制订并实施林地资源保护与开发利用政策提供了具有参考价值的信息。
Based on the data of raster area, a econometric model was established to study the causes of forestland area change. Tobop regression analysis was used to estimate the impact of natural environmental conditions and socio-economic factors on the change of forestland area in Jiangxi Province. The paper chooses the main factors affecting the change of forestland area in Jiangxi Province, including population, GDP per capita, location conditions and so on, analyzes the mechanism of various factors driving the change of forestland area in Jiangxi Province, and puts forward that strengthening forestland protection in Jiangxi Province, An important way to increase the area - to speed up economic development, especially by accelerating the infrastructure construction to promote the economic development in the relatively backward areas and to play an active role in economic growth on woodland conservation. At the same time, the study also found that actively transferring rural surplus labor force and reducing the population pressure on the surrounding woodland is also one of the important means to ease the pressure of deforestation reclamation in Jiangxi Province. The conclusion of the study provides valuable information for Jiangxi Province to formulate and implement the policy of forestland resource conservation and development and utilization.