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本文基于治理全球金融危机与常规货币政策失效的大背景,探讨公共债务货币化对经济增长和物价水平的影响机制,选取了五个国家和地区2008—2015年的月度数据建立面板VAR模型,结合对美国和日本的个案,实证分析了公共债务货币化对宏观经济的影响。实证结果显示,公共债务货币化对经济增长和物价水平具有短期的脉冲式影响,且传导渠道的作用效果并不一致,增加货币供应量和市场信心的作用较为明显;美国公共债务货币化对宏观经济影响的传导机制畅通且取得了良好的效果,表现在直接融资市场活跃弥补了商业银行“惜贷”的负面影响,而日本则由于传导机制的不畅和间接融资的局限性未取得预期效果。最后,提出中国应该正确认识并合理利用公共债务货币化,改善国内金融环境、促进直接融资发展以及完善国债和地方债市场等政策建议。
Based on the background of managing the global financial crisis and the failure of conventional monetary policy, this paper explores the mechanism of the impact of public debt monetization on economic growth and price level, and selects the monthly VAR data model of five countries and regions for 2008-2015. In the United States and Japan, the impact of public debt monetization on the macroeconomy is analyzed empirically. The empirical results show that the public debt monetization has a short-term impact on economic growth and the price level, and the effect of the transmission channel is not consistent. The role of increasing the money supply and market confidence is more obvious. The monetization of public debt in the United States has a negative impact on the macroeconomy The unobstructed conduction mechanism has yielded good results. This is reflected in the fact that the direct financing market has made up for the negative impact of commercial banks’ “pity loans,” while Japan did not achieve the expected result due to the poor transmission mechanism and the limitations of indirect financing effect. Finally, it puts forward some policy recommendations that China should correctly understand and make rational use of public debt monetization, improve the domestic financial environment, promote the development of direct financing and improve the national debt and local bond market.