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核武器的出现使大国战争再无完全的胜利者。地缘经济竞争日益取代了哥伦布时代以来地缘政治竞争的优势地位,战后地区主义的蓬勃发展就是这种时代趋势的反映。“一带一路”是在欧亚权力对比和中国在东亚地区的地位发生有利于中国的根本变化的情况下中国政府提出的洲际地区主义合作倡议,其实质是一个经济地区主义合作机制,因此解决不了洲际安全问题,更不可能“超越”传统的地缘政治。对“一带一路”实质、局限、目标与效用评判标准均需细致的分析与界定,才能避免出现对其评价简单随意的倾向。地区主义与地区化应该彼此推进、相互为用,政府主导的地区主义必须以本地区的地区性水平为基础。中国应该塑造有利于“一带一路”发展的安全环境,从而打破“一带一路”沿线地缘政治的羁绊,推动其顺利发展。“一带一路”需要使长期愿景与阶段性目标、国家实力与政策设计、中国的主观愿望和沿线国家的需求相协调。
The emergence of nuclear weapons makes the Grand War no longer a complete winner. Geo-economic competition has increasingly replaced the dominant position of geopolitical competition since the Columbus era. The rapid development of post-war regionalism is a reflection of this trend in the times. The Belt and Road initiative is an inter-continental regionalism initiative proposed by the Chinese government in the context of the comparative power between Europe and Asia and the fundamental change in China’s status in East Asia in favor of China. The essence is an economic regionalism cooperation mechanism, therefore Can not solve the problem of intercontinental security, but more impossible “beyond” the traditional geopolitical. It is necessary to carefully analyze and define the criteria for the nature, limitations, goals and utility of the ’One Belt and Roads One Way’ in order to avoid the tendency of appraising it simply and arbitrarily. Regionalism and regionalization should advance each other and use each other. The government-led regionalism must be based on the regional level in the region. China should create a safe environment conducive to the development of the “One Belt, One Road” and thus break the fetters of geopolitics along the “Belt and Road” and promote its smooth development. Belt and Road needs to align long-term vision with phased goals, design of national strength and policy, China’s subjective desire and the needs of countries along the line.