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本文以我国一系列强震及中强震前的丰富的前兆观测资料为基础,发现并研究了地震前兆过程的三个基本阶段。α阶段总的说来是前兆从震源区向外围地区发展的一个较长的阶段。β阶段表现出地震前兆有一个快速的发展,因而前兆几乎在各处同时出现。在γ阶段上,地震前兆则从外围地区向震源区发展与恢复。然后就要出现临震异常阶段,最后发生主震。 用量纲分析方法得出并讨论了前兆时间T与未来地震的震中距R及震级M之间的以下一般关系式,其经验系数m,C_1,C_2应在不同具体情况下分别定出:M=C_1l_(?)(TR~m)+C_2 为了解释所述的地震前兆的三阶段发展过程,文中研究了一个简单的震源孕育物理模式。该模式引用了流体(水)扩散引起失稳及震前的非地震滑动引起波动状长周期形变的概念,而地震前兆的三个发展阶段则可以与地震孕育过程的三个相应阶段相联系。 根据本文所得的结果,地震预报的三个阶段可以在物理基础上来进行划分。
Based on the abundant precursory observation data of a series of strong earthquakes and moderate earthquakes in our country, we found and studied three basic stages of the earthquake precursory process. The α stage is generally a long period of precursor development from the source area to the periphery. The β phase shows a rapid development of earthquake precursors, so precursors appear almost simultaneously everywhere. In the γ phase, the earthquake precursors developed and recovered from the periphery to the source region. Then there will be an abnormal phase of the imminent earthquake, and finally the main shock. The following general relationship between epicentral distance R and magnitude M of precursory time T and future earthquakes is derived and discussed by dimensional analysis method. The empirical coefficients m, C_1 and C_2 should be respectively determined under different conditions: M = In order to explain the three-phase evolution of the earthquake precursors, a simple physical model of hypocenter was developed. The model cites the notion of fluid (water) diffusion causing instability and pre-earthquake non-seismic slippage causing long periods of undulating fluctuations, while the three stages of earthquake precursors can be related to three corresponding phases of the geobotering process. According to the results obtained in this paper, the three stages of earthquake prediction can be divided on the basis of physics.