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这篇文章回顾了过去20年中国中央和地方政府关于财政系统,财权分配和土地使用的对弈,以及他们是如何影响房地产周期的。本文将房地产周期分为三个阶段:试点试验阶段,双轨阶段以及完全商业化阶段,每一个阶段都有不断重复出现的矛盾。当商品市场改革大步前进时,中央政府对房地产的调节作用将逐渐减弱,但是地方政府对房地产的调节作用将逐步加强。
This essay looks at the game between the Chinese central and local governments over the past two decades about the fiscal system, the distribution of financial resources and land use, and how they affect the real estate cycle. In this paper, the real estate cycle is divided into three phases: the pilot phase, the dual-phase phase and the full commercial phase. Each phase has recurring contradictions. When the marketization of the commodity market strides forward, the regulatory role of the central government on real estate will gradually diminish, but the regulatory role of local governments on real estate will be gradually strengthened.