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通过分析受教育年限和预期寿命对居民储蓄率的影响机制,并以此探讨延迟退休对居民储蓄率可能造成的影响,研究发现在法定退休制度下,受教育年限提高缩短了工作期,预期寿命提高则延长了退休期,两者共同减少了工作期与退休期之比,从而提高了居民储蓄率;而延迟退休恰好可以对冲这一变化,从而影响居民储蓄率。利用系统GMM方法对省级面板数据进行实证的结果表明,预期寿命每提高1年,居民储蓄率大约增加0.4个百分点;而受教育年限每提高1年,居民储蓄率增加约0.75个百分点。由此可知,延迟退休年龄有利于居民储蓄率的下降。
By analyzing the influence mechanism of the years of education and life expectancy on the savings rate of residents, and to explore the possible impact of delayed retirement on household savings rate, the study found that under the statutory retirement system, the increase of education years shortens the working life and life expectancy The increase will prolong the retirement period. Both of them will reduce the ratio of working period to retirement period, thus increasing the household saving rate. Delayed retirement happens to hedge the change and thus affect the household saving rate. Empirical results from provincial panel data using the system GMM method show that for every 1-year increase in life expectancy, the savings rate of residents will increase by about 0.4 percentage points. When the education period increases by 1 year, the household savings rate will increase by about 0.75 percentage points. This shows that the delay in retirement age is conducive to the decline in household savings rate.