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Based on the theory of attribute identification, a weight-variable identification model was put forward on top coal caving effect in fully mechanized top coal caving face.Contribution value of all kinds of evaluation factor of the caving coal and waste were used to determine weight coefficient. And then comprehensively estimated it by the given credible degree value. This kind of method can not only classify for attribute identification, but also can classify it into sub-classification according to comprehensive score compositor that of the same attribute. The comprehensive estimate result of plane and solid caving experiments shows that the result is true, credible, simple and that is not only one of the effective method of theory study, but also can be regarded as a quantitative examine method of the top coal caving effect in scene.