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当前中国经济最大的风险不是金融危机,而是经济增长停滞,一个十分重要的证据就是直线上升的边际资本产出率,同样生产一个单位的GDP所需要的资本投入的量已经大幅上升。当前中国经济的高杠杆问题已经引起普遍的关注,大家讨论中国经济风险,几乎三句话不离高杠杆。中国经济是否进入了风险铁三角?两位美国经济学家雷恩哈特和罗格夫在2009年出了一本畅销书:《这次不一样》。书中梳理并分析了人类历史800年来的各种金融危机,一个主要的结论,是钱借
At present, the biggest risk to China’s economy is not the financial crisis, but the stagnation of economic growth. One of the most important evidences is the soaring marginal rate of output of capital. The amount of capital investment required to produce the same unit of GDP has risen sharply. At present, the issue of high leverage in the Chinese economy has drawn widespread attention. When we discuss the economic risks in China, we can hardly get away from high leverage in almost three sentences. Has China’s economy entered the risk triangle? Two leading American economists, Reinhardt and Rogoff, made a best-seller in 2009: “It’s not the same this time.” The book sorts and analyzes the various financial crises in human history for 800 years. One of the main conclusions is that money