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为确保灾民在救灾物资储备库失效情况下仍然能得到急需的生活物资,用情景建模方法构建考虑救灾物资储备库失效风险的随机规划选址模型。模型以期望总成本最小为目标,以储备库位置和在不同情景下储备库服务范围为决策变量。其中,期望总成本由储备库建立成本和失效后的期望运输成本构成,约束条件包括储备库能力约束和救灾物资运达灾区的时间限制约束。由于可能的情景数较多,用样本平均近似算法(SAA)求解。以云南省昭通市的相关数据为背景设计算例,验证模型的有效性。结果表明:在考虑救灾物资储备库失效风险条件下,救灾需求和到达受灾点的运输时间是储备库最佳选址方案和救灾物流成本的主要决定因素。
In order to ensure that victims can still get much-needed living materials when the disaster relief supplies reserve fails, a stochastic programming and location model considering the failure risk of relief supplies and reserves is constructed by using scenario modeling method. The objective of the model is to minimize the total expected cost, and the location of the repository and the scope of service of the repository under different scenarios are the decision variables. Among them, the expected total cost is composed of the cost of reserve establishment and the expected cost of transportation after the expiration, and the restraint conditions include the reserve capacity constraint and the time constraint of disaster relief supplies to the affected areas. Due to the large number of possible scenarios, a sample-average approximation (SAA) solution was used. Based on the data of Zhaotong in Yunnan Province, a numerical example is given to verify the validity of the model. The results show that under the condition of failure risk of relief supplies reserve, disaster relief needs and transportation time to reach the disaster points are the main determinants of the best site selection plan and disaster relief logistics cost.