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铁路货运总量预测和货流分布预测是铁路货运量预测有机联系的两个方面。本文针对总货运量预测中较难解决的问题——变量选择和多重共线性,运用定性和定量相结合原则利用逐步回归方法定量挑选显著性变量,建立理想的货运量预测模型。此外,本文在评介货流研究一般方法基础上,根据多地区货物交流目的,探讨了货流预测的方法,提出用Frator法预测货流。并指出货流预测进一步的发展方向。
Prediction of the total freight volume and the distribution of freight flow are two aspects of the organic relationship of freight volume forecasting. In this paper, the difficult problem of total cargo volume forecasting - variable selection and multi-collinearity, using the combination of qualitative and quantitative principles using stepwise regression quantitative selection of significant variables, the establishment of an ideal freight volume forecasting model. In addition, on the basis of reviewing the general methods of freight flow research, this paper discusses the method of freight flow forecasting according to the purpose of multi-region cargo exchange and puts forward the method of Frator to forecast the freight flow. And point out the direction of further development of freight forecasting.