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:本文在对国内外区域经济趋同研究的相关理论综述中,发现我国区域经济不同发展时期的经济增长与协调发展间的内生因素没有得到令人满意的阐述。作者试图通过对改革开放以来31年间(1978～2008年)我国经济发展总体趋势和区域发展差异性进行分析研究,揭示其内在因素,并采用马尔可夫链改进的灰色预测法对我国未来20年(2009～2028年)的经济发展态势进行预测,揭示我国未来区域经济发展收敛性的方向,并给出促进我国区域经济协调发展的政策建议。
In this paper, we summarize the relevant theories of the research on the regional economic convergence both at home and abroad and find that the endogenous factors between economic growth and coordinated development in different periods of regional economy in our country have not been satisfactorily elaborated. The author attempts to analyze and study the general trend of economic development and regional development in our country during the 31 years (1978 ~ 2008) since the reform and opening up, revealing its intrinsic factors and using the improved gray forecasting method based on Markov chain to analyze the future 20 years (2009 ~ 2028), forecasting the direction of the convergence of China’s future regional economic development and giving some policy recommendations to promote the coordinated development of regional economy in China.