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免费午餐的又一个美梦最近,金融市场翘首以待中国重估人民币,人民币在无本金交割远期外汇交易(NDF)市场上的价格又攀新高。这种期望的理由是,国际压力将迫使中国采取行动,而五一假期被认为会是展开这一举措的良机。笔者认为,投机者们不应对此抱太大的指望。中国能够承受住重估的压力。首先,中国仍有足够的空间实行冲销政策来对付热钱泛滥。中国的收率曲线在美元之下,中央银行仍然能够执行
Another sweet dream for free lunch Recently, the financial market is waiting for China to revalue its renminbi. The price of renminbi in the non-deliverable forward foreign exchange (NDF) market has climbed again. The reason for this expectation is that international pressure will force China to take action and the May Day holiday is seen as a good opportunity to start this move. In my opinion, speculators should not expect too much. China can withstand the pressure of revaluation. First of all, China still has enough room to implement a sterilization policy to deal with the spread of hot money. China’s yield curve is under the dollar, and the central bank is still able to implement it