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一、全球综观——转型~**1.全球经济体同步转型及其风险世界经济正处于转型之中。全球经济增长正在恢复,但转型意味着风险和波动加剧上升。此轮世界经济转型表现出多种形式,但同时可能导致的风险也增大。转型对于实现更加均衡、更可持续的增长既是必需也是必要。当下的不确定性是值得付出的成本。对于当前的欧洲而言,增长加快不应分散更多亲增长政策的必要性,尤其是北部国家。中东地区的政治转型正在拉大海湾合作委员会资源国与其余国家之间的差距。但要说到转型的全球性影响,美国和中国,这两个世界前两大经济体,是众所关注的焦点。美联储货币政策正回归常规化,鉴于美国量化宽松对全球流动性产生的乘数效应,这意
I. GLOBAL OVERVIEW - TRANSITION ~ ** 1. Synchronization and Global Economic Crisis The global economy is undergoing transformation. Global economic growth is recovering, but the transition means rising risks and volatility. This round of world economic transformation has shown various forms, but at the same time the risks that may be caused also increase. Transformation is both necessary and necessary to achieve more balanced and sustainable growth. Uncertainty of the moment is a worthwhile cost. For the current Europe, the acceleration of growth should not divert the need for more pro-growth policies, especially in northern countries. The political transformation in the Middle East is widening the gap between the resource countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the rest of the world. However, speaking of the global impact of the transition, the United States and China, the two largest economies in the world, are the focus of attention. Fed monetary policy is back to normalization, given the United States QE multiplier effect on global liquidity, which means