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利用北京市1987年-2007年的地区投入产出表,在能源消耗总量约束条件下构建了北京市1987年、1992年、1997年、2002年和2007年五个时期的投入产出优化模型,通过产业结构调整的手段来实现经济效益最大。通过五个历史时期的优化模拟,采用灰色关联度分析比较了各个历史时期的真实产业结构与优化产业结构的相似程度。研究表明:①北京市的产业结构调整的重点在于发展第三产业,包括批发和零售业、金融保险业和其他社会服务业部门;②除1987年外,北京市其他各时期工业调整方向需要降低大部分工业的比重,2002年和2007年则需要适度提高纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒制品业、通用专用设备制造业、交通运输设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业和通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业的比重;③通过比较五个时期北京市产业结构的优化模拟,得出北京市1997年的产业结构优化程度最高,2002年则最低,同时数据显示北京市2002年以后的产业结构优化程度低于2002年以前,北京市产业结构优化仍旧具有较大的调整潜力。最后,提出了北京市产业结构未来调整的方向。
Based on the regional input-output table of Beijing City from 1987 to 2007, the input-output optimization model of Beijing in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007 was constructed under the restriction of total energy consumption , Through the means of industrial restructuring to achieve the greatest economic benefits. Through the optimization simulation of five historical periods, the degree of similarity between the real industrial structure and the optimized industrial structure in each historical period was compared by the gray relational analysis. The research shows that: (1) The adjustment of industrial structure in Beijing focuses on the development of the tertiary industry, including the wholesale and retail trade, finance and insurance and other social service sectors; (2) except for 1987, the industrial readjustment in other periods in Beijing needs to be reduced The proportion of most industries in 2002 and 2007 will need to be moderately increased. Textiles and clothing Footwear Leather and feather products, general-purpose special equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing and communications equipment Computers and other electronic equipment (3) By comparing the optimization of industrial structure in Beijing during the five periods, we can conclude that Beijing has the highest degree of industrial structure optimization in 1997 and the lowest in 2002, and the data shows that the degree of industrial structure optimization in Beijing after 2002 Before 2002, the industrial structure optimization in Beijing still has a great potential for adjustment. Finally, it puts forward the direction of the future adjustment of Beijing’s industrial structure.