,Government Investment in Disaster Risk Reduction Based on a Probabilistic Risk Model: A Case Study

• 作 者: Yao Wang Binxia Wu
• 机 构: Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Education and Ministry of Civil
• 出 处: 国际灾害风险科学学报（英文版）
• 发表日期: 2016年2期
• 关键词: Cost-benefit analysis Disaster risk reduction investment Shenzhen Typhoon risk m

In recent years,cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has played an important role in disaster risk reduction (DRR)investment decisions,and now increasing attention is being paid to its application in developing countries.This article discusses govement investment choices in DRR against typhoon disasters in Shenzhen,China.While the existing literature mainly focuses on disaster mitigation measures such as structural retrofitting,this study proposes a holistic framework of DRR investments in which structural (windproof retrofitting) and financial (insurance premium subsidies and post-disaster relief) are all taken into account.In particular,intermeasure spillover effects are measured and used in CBA.The results show that insurance premium subsidies yield the highest benefit-cost ratio and should be prioritized in investment.Windproof retrofitting comes in second place in terms of the benefit-cost ratio and can be considered when there is a sufficient budget.These results further confirm the need of a holistic review of govement DRR investments to derive policy recommendations,while challenges remain in relation to the probabilistic modeling capacity to support CBA.