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１９８６～１９９１年在黑龙江省勃利县通天一林场设立固定标准地、通过孢子扑捉和病情调查，搞清了勃利县落叶松枯梢病流行规律与气象因子的关系。根据落叶松枯梢病流行规律．利用前１年６、７、三个月的平均温度（ｘ２）和平均降雨量（ｘ３）为自变因子，采用回归测报方法建立多元线性回归预测模型：ｙ＝２７·３８４２＋０．７０４５９６ｘ２＋０．３４３７ｘ３即可预测第２年的病情指数。又采用了灰色理论中的灰色预测模型。两种方法对模型内外的实际病情检验。证明预测模型是可信的。
From 1986 to 1991, a fixed standard was established in Tongtian-a Forest Farm, Boli County, Heilongjiang Province. Through the investigation of spore catches and disease investigation, the relationship between the prevalence of larch-shoot blight disease and meteorological factors in Boli County was clarified. According to the prevalence of Shoot blight disease. Using the average temperature (x2) and the average rainfall (x3) of 6 months and 7 months in the previous year as the self-variation factors, a regression model was established to predict the multiple linear regression model: y = 27.3842 + 0.704596x2 + 0.3437x3 Can predict the first two years of the disease index. Again using the gray theory of gray prediction model. Two methods of testing the actual condition inside and outside the model. Prove the prediction model is credible.