论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨厦门市居民道路交通事故死亡与减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市道路交通事故综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2008-2014年厦门市居民道路交通事故死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2008-2014年,厦门市居民因道路交通事故死亡率变化不大,平均为11.66/10万,男性死亡率是女性的2.79倍;AYLL为28.15年。GM(1,1)模型预测2015-2017年道路交通事故死亡率和AYLL值将略有下降。结论道路交通事故仍是厦门市居民早死的重要原因,应以男性、老年居民作为重点宣教对象,重视道路交通事故的预防和控制工作。
Objective To explore the trend of death and longevity of road traffic accidents among residents in Xiamen city and provide the basis for the comprehensive prevention and control work of road traffic accidents in Xiamen City. Methods Assessing the calculated mortality, the average number of years of life lost (AYLL), and the percentage change of annual average death rate of road traffic accidents in Xiamen City from 2008 to 2014. The mortality and AYLL Make a prediction Results From 2008 to 2014, the death rate of Xiamen residents due to road traffic accidents did not change much, with an average of 11.66 / 100,000. The death rate of males was 2.79 times of that of women; AYLL was 28.15 years. The GM (1,1) model predicts a slight decline in road traffic fatalities and AYLL values for 2015-2017. Conclusion Road traffic accidents are still an important cause of premature death in Xiamen City. Male and elderly residents should be the key mission objects, and attention should be paid to the prevention and control of road traffic accidents.