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几年前,我曾经提出中国社会结构演变的四个可能趋势,即结构定型、精英联盟、寡头统治和赢者通吃。从今天来看,这四个趋势有的要更为明显,有的若隐若现,但这四个趋势对中国未来走向会有根本性的影响。如果我们将中国转型社会中的精英问题放到这样一个基本的背景中去认识,也许可以把握得更为准确一些。结构定型社会结构的定型化不是一种反常的现象而是一种正常的、常规的现象。除非在大的社会变革时期,社会结构的
A few years ago, I once proposed four possible trends in the evolution of China’s social structure: structural stereotyping, elite coalition, oligarchy, and winner-take-all. From today’s point of view, some of the four trends are more obvious and some are looming, but these four trends will have a fundamental impact on China’s future direction. If we understand the issue of the elite in China’s transitional society in such a basic background, we may be able to grasp more accurately. The finalization of structural social structure is not an anomalous phenomenon but a normal and normal phenomenon. Unless in the period of social change, social structure