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本文运用统计学原理,对济源县二十五年(1961～1985)来夏谷产量与气温、降水、日照等气象因素之间的关系进行了分析。结果表明,总降水量不足和降水时间分配不合理是影响该县夏谷产量的主要原因,其中,九月上旬降水偏少对产量影响最大。该县夏谷全生育期内总积温和总日照时数能满足夏谷生长发育的需要,但六月下旬因降水不足致使日照时数偏多是影响产量的又一主要气象因子。夏谷生育期内各时段气温分布比较合理,不存在限制产量提高的温度因子。依据逐步回归和积分回归原理,建立了夏谷产量预报方程,对产量预报的准确性作了检验;同时,还将各气象要素对产量效应进行了分析。并对该县夏谷栽培管理措施提出了建议。
This paper analyzes the relationship between summer grain yield and temperature, precipitation, sunshine and other meteorological factors in Jiyuan County in twenty-five years (1961 ~ 1985) by using statistical principles. The results show that lack of total precipitation and irrational distribution of precipitation are the main reasons that affect the yield of summer cereal in this county, of which the less severe precipitation in early September has the greatest impact on the yield. The total accumulated temperature and total sunshine hours during the whole growth period can meet the needs of summer cereal growth and development. However, the more sunshine duration caused by insufficient precipitation in late June is another major meteorological factor that affects the yield. During the growth period of summer cereal, the distribution of temperature in each period is more reasonable, and there is no temperature factor that limits the yield increase. Based on the principle of stepwise regression and integral regression, the summer grain yield forecasting equation was established and the accuracy of yield forecasting was tested. At the same time, the meteorological elements were also analyzed. And put forward suggestions on cultivation and management measures of summer valley in this county.