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米兰达判决是美国联邦最高法院作出的最著名也最有争议的判例之一,美国学者围绕米兰达规则运行的实际效果进行了一系列实证研究。其中保罗G.卡塞尔和理查德.福尔斯在研究米兰达判决的影响时,选择了破案率(Clearance Rate)作为衡量指标,通过相关的统计数据,揭示了米兰达判决作出的随后几年内,破案率大幅下降,并通过多元回归分析法,确定米兰达判决是造成破案率大幅下降的主要原因。对这一实证研究,其衡量指标的确定、自变量的选取以及采用的分析方法总体上值得借鉴,但是与任何其他实证研究一样,其在方法论、数据的信度和效度上也存在一定的局限性。
The Miranda decision is one of the most famous and controversial jurisprudence made by the Supreme Court of the United States. American scholars conducted a series of empirical studies on the actual effect of Miranda’s rule operation. Among them, Paul G. Kassel and Richard Falls studied the influence of Miranda’s judgment by choosing the Clearance Rate as a measure, revealing the subsequent Miranda judgment In a few years, the detection rate dropped sharply, and by multiple regression analysis, the decision Miranda’s decision is the main reason for the sharp drop in the detection rate. For this empirical study, the determination of its measurement index, the selection of independent variables and the analysis methods adopted are generally worth learning. However, as with any other empirical study, there is also certainty in the methodology and the reliability and validity of the data limitation.