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欧元区经济复苏态势良好,长期将有利于债市的稳定。但短期内,由于通胀因素和政治风险的影响,欧债收益率的波动性将保持较高水平,且上涨空间有限。2017年以来,欧元区经济复苏态势良好:一季度GDP同比增长1.9%,高于预期;5月制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为57,创下6年来高位;通胀水平较去年也有所回升。此外,由于法国大选后政治风险有所下降,欧债收益率普遍较去年有所上涨。但是,考虑到目前欧元区的通胀水平还不足以支持重
The euro zone economy recovery in good shape, long-term will be conducive to the stability of the bond market. However, in the short term, due to the influence of inflation and political risks, the volatility of the bond yields in Europe will remain at a high level with limited upside. The economic recovery in the Eurozone has been in good shape since 2017: first quarter GDP grew 1.9% YoY, higher than expected; in May, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 57, which hit a six-year high; and inflation levels have also picked up from last year. In addition, due to the political risk after the French general election declined, the European debt rate of return generally rose over last year. However, taking into account the current level of inflation in the euro area is not enough to support the heavy