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2006年拉美政治稳定之中有变化:地区政治局势相对平稳,政治进程基本按预期发展;与此同时,政治发展出现一些新的显著变化,政治力量的接近与分野日益复杂,左翼力量之间差异日益明显,政治改革的任务依然紧迫。2006年拉美经济继续在上升的通道中运行,出现了一些积极的变化:稳定且持续好转的宏观经济为经济增长提供了宽松的环境和相对坚实的基础;国际收支进一步改善,对外贸易和经常项目继续保持顺差;通货膨胀率创下了近10多年来的最低纪录;在保持经济政策相对稳定的基础上,拉美各国结合本国实际和经济发展的需要进行了相应调整,某些领域中的改革进一步深化。与此同时,2006年拉美经济中存在的一些问题值得关注。2006年拉美国家的对外关系呈分化走势:美拉之间的矛盾和冲突进一步扩大,但未动摇美国在拉美的地位;由于美国在拉美的影响力日益下降,美国开始调整对拉美的政策;在地区关系中,拉美国家继续推动地区一体化进程,但合作缺乏实质性进展,内部摩擦和矛盾不断扩大;拉美国家与欧洲、亚太和非洲的多元化外交积极且富有成效。2006年拉美社会形势的基本特点是:主要社会指标逐步改进的趋势更为明显;社会形势相对稳定,但社会冲突时有发生,局部地区仍有动荡;当前拉美社会发展正处于一个关键时期,社会稳定仍然面临着严峻的挑战。本期邀请中国社会科学院拉美所政治室主任袁东振、经济室主任吴国平、国际关系室主任贺双荣、社会文化室主任刘纪新盘点2006年拉美地区形势,分析今后一个时期的走向。
There were changes in the political stability in Latin America in 2006: the political situation in the region was relatively stable and the political process basically proceeded as expected. At the same time, there were some new significant changes in political development. The political forces were increasingly approached and divided, and the differences in left-wing forces It is increasingly obvious that the task of political reform remains urgent. In 2006, the Latin American economy continued to operate in an ascending channel with some positive changes: A stable and continuously improving macroeconomic environment provided a relaxed environment and a relatively solid foundation for economic growth; the balance of payments was further improved; foreign trade and often On the basis of maintaining relatively stable economic policies, Latin American countries adjusted their needs in light of their actual conditions and their economic development. Some reforms in some areas further improved the rate of inflation in the past 10 years, deepen. At the same time, some issues in the Latin American economy in 2006 deserve our attention. The foreign relations of Latin American countries showed a trend of differentiation in 2006: the conflicts and conflicts between the United States and Latin America expanded further, but the United States did not shake its position in Latin America. As the influence of the United States in Latin America was declining, the United States began to adjust its policy on Latin America. At the In the regional relations, the Latin American countries continued to promote the process of regional integration. However, their cooperation lacks substantive progress and their internal friction and conflicts have continuously expanded. The diplomatic diplomacy among Latin American countries and Europe, Asia and the Pacific and Africa has been both positive and fruitful. The basic characteristics of the social situation in Latin America in 2006 are as follows: the gradual improvement of major social indicators tends to be more pronounced; the social situation is relatively stable; however, social conflicts have occurred from time to time, and some areas still have turmoil. At present, the development of Latin American society is in a crucial period. Stability is still facing a serious challenge. In the current issue, Yuan Dongzheng, director of the Latin American-American Political Bureau at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Wu Guoping, director of the economy department, He Shuangrong, director of the International Relations Office, and Liu Jixin, director of the social and cultural department, took stock of the situation in Latin America in 2006 and analyzed trends in the coming period.