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中国社科院教授、天风证券首席经济学家刘煜辉近日表示——过去10年,中国经济周期完全来源于“房地产+基建”。而这二者最根本的决定力量是债务,即房企、居民与政府的负债。看清楚这一点,就可以理解“根本不存在新周期”。长期看,因为产能的转移是非效率的,甚至是从经济中高效率的部门转移至低效率的部门,只会更加重将来经济转型的困难。在需求端,事实上也并非出现真实
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Professor Tian Yufeng chief economist Liu Yuhui recently said - in the past 10 years, China’s economic cycle comes from “real estate + infrastructure ”. The most fundamental determinant of both is debt, that is, the liabilities of the housing enterprises, residents and the government. To see this clearly, one can understand that “there is no new cycle at all.” In the long run, the transfer of production capacity is inefficient and even the shift from an economy-efficient sector to an inefficient sector will only increase the difficulty of economic restructuring in the future. On the demand side, in fact it does not appear real