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在全球主要经济体呈现增长弱复苏和利率渐次走高的趋势下,美股将高处不胜寒,A股面临的投资机遇则大于风险。目前全球经济处于怎样的局势?笔者倾向于认为,全球经济已到了增长和利率的拐点,未来应是增长弱复苏和利率渐次走高的趋势。其中,美联储的量宽退出,可能对资产价格造成冲击;中国经济则与此类似,在长期增长从10%的平台下移到7%之后,出现温和向好的趋势,而利率市场化将推高名义利率的水平。就投资而言,量宽退出对美股会有风险,但房地产仍会复苏;中国经济启稳回升则会给A股带来机会,但房地产有加速见顶风险。
With the weak growth recovery and rising interest rates in the world’s major economies, US stocks will outweigh the gains and the A-share investment opportunities will outweigh the risks. At present, the global economy is in what kind of situation? I prefer to think that the global economy has reached the turning point of growth and interest rates. The future should be a weakening recovery and a rising interest rate. Among them, the Fed’s withdrawal of a wide amount may impact on asset prices. Similarly, in China’s economy, when the long-term growth moves from a 10% platform to 7%, there will be a moderate trend while interest rate liberalization will push High nominal interest rate level. In terms of investment, the exit of the lender will be risky but the real estate will still recover. The pick-up of the Chinese economy will give the A-shares a chance, but the real estate risks accelerating.