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文章在一般均衡模型的基础上,以比较静态方法分析了房地产投资倾向变化对均衡产出增长率的作用机制和影响情况,发现房地产投资倾向的提高将导致均衡产出增长率的降低。文章进一步将模型改造成包含随机冲击的动态方程系统,在基于中国数据的基础上进行参数校准后进行脉冲响应分析,研究冲击发生后各变量的动态反应过程,发现房地产投资倾向的提高在当期将增加房地产资本积累率,并降低产出增长率。文章最后采用中国数据对房地产投资倾向和产出增长率关系进行了计量分析,发现即使在资源非充分就业条件下,虽然房地产投资倾向的提高在当期会通过需求效应提高产出增长率,但却会降低下一期产出增长率。文章得出的结论是,房地产投资倾向的过度提高会通过需求效应对产出增长产生促进作用,但更可能会通过挤出效应降低资源配置效率而对潜在产出增长产生负面影响,而且资源越接近充分就业,房地产投资倾向与产出增长率越是呈现出一种负向关系。
Based on the general equilibrium model, the paper analyzes the mechanism and influence of the change in investment tendencies of real estate on the equilibrium output growth rate by the comparative static method. It is found that the increase of the real estate investment tendency will lead to the decrease of the equilibrium output growth rate. The article further modifies the model into a dynamic equation system with random impact. After performing parameter calibration based on Chinese data, the impulse response is analyzed to study the dynamic response process of each variable after the impact. It is found that the improvement of the real estate investment tendency in the current period Increase the rate of real estate capital accumulation, and reduce the output growth rate. In the end, the paper uses Chinese data to analyze the relationship between the real estate investment propensity and the output growth rate. It is found that although the propensity of real estate investment improves the output growth rate through the demand effect in the current period even under the condition of insufficient resources employment, Will reduce the next period output growth rate. The conclusion of the article is that excessive increase of investment tendencies in real estate can promote output growth through demand effect, but it is more likely to reduce the potential resource output through squeeze-out effect, which will have a negative impact on potential output growth. Moreover, Nearly full employment, the real estate investment tendencies and the output growth rate shows a more negative relationship.